How the ECB is endangering the euro – and what that means for Bitcoin

As deflationary money, Bitcoin serves as a hedge against galloping inflation. You can already feel it in many developing countries. Why the ECB is putting the euro at risk and why we need Crypto Engine now more than ever.

It’s one of those things about inflation

Even if the Bitcoin community likes to take the expansive monetary policy of the central banks as an opportunity to bring about high inflation rates: there is currently no question of inflation. In fact, the price level in Germany is even falling. More precisely, the inflation rate officially determined by the Federal Statistical Office for December 2020 was minus 0.3 percent.

And that is astonishing in view of the considerable glut of money with which the European Central Bank (ECB) has literally flooded the market over the past twelve months.

The ECB’s balance sheet has risen from just under five trillion euros to over 7 trillion euros within a year. Meanwhile, the balance sheet total amounts to 69 percent of the approx. 18 trillion euros gross domestic product of the euro zone.

The purchase programs that made this unique monetary experiment possible have telling titles such as “Pandemic Emergency Purchase Program” (PEPP, volume: 1.85 trillion euros) or “Corporate Sector Purchase Program” (CSPP). Ultimately, this is based on decisions by the Governing Council to bring further liquidity into the market by purchasing assets such as bonds.

The shortened conclusion from the expansion of the money supply in the euro zone would now be an analogous inflation. Because more money with stagnating economic output ultimately suggests a price increase. Alone, inflation is not coming. Why is that?

The money is in the hoards

Economists like the former President of the Ifo Institute for Economic Research, Hans-Werner Sinn, don’t trust the roast. Low inflation rates based on the shopping basket therefore give a false picture of the actual situation. In reality, according to Sinn during his Christmas lecture with the appropriate title „Corona and the miraculous increase in money in Europe“, the ECB has fallen into the liquidity trap.

In summary, this hides a market economy situation in which low interest rates meet high savings. The large amount of money does not flow into government bonds, for example, but lies in consumer savings accounts, as it is assumed that the economic situation will worsen and interest rates will soon rise again. Monetary policy is ultimately ineffective in such a situation.

In this context, one speaks of “hoarding money”, in which all the money is kept.

The ECB’s hands are tied in this situation. After all, it has a mandate to guarantee price level stability – and according to the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union (AEU Treaty), this means inflation of almost two percent. With current almost deflationary conditions, the ECB is missing its target by far and has a blank check to print money.